Plus: AI deals, Nvidia's conference, EV news, and homebuilding. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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What we're watching |
🤝 Two Big Tech laggards working together: Apple and Alphabet haven't been keeping pace with their competitors in the "Magnificent Seven" as Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft separate from the pack. But the two tech titans are in talks about a unique partnership in which Google's Gemini AI would power the iPhone's AI features.
🎤 Nvidia conference's big takeaway after day one: The conference just started, but so far the company is challenging the commonly held notion that it's just a chipmaker. So far, our correspondent Dan Howley has highlighted its Omniverse software headed to Apple's headset, new software for human-like robots, and a new AI chip. And with other tech companies making their own chips — and Nvidia sitting on a lot of money — the diversification makes sense.
🏡 Homebuilder confidence surges: Homebuilder confidence hit the highest level since July as constricted supply continues to push prospective buyers towards new construction. Tuesday's major economic data releases feature building permits and housing starts for February — which are both expected to tick up.
⚡️ EV maker XPeng to launch cheap EVs: Chinese EV maker XPeng announced plans Monday for a new brand of EV that would cost somewhere between $14,000 and $21,000. The company, whose Q4 results will be the only major quarterly release Tuesday, is looking to solve one of EV's biggest problems, the high prices that are tanking demand. The news also comes as Tesla hikes the price of its Model Y — despite high inventory — further highlighting the market's affordability hole. And Rivian joins Tesla's supercharger network, a win for the other big EV problem: charging infrastructure.
🏆 Workers break a 15-year streak: Worker productivity has been essentially flat for the past 15 years, and even slumped in 2022. But now, analysis from Bank of America shows companies are making more revenue per worker than ever before. It's an auspicious stat, and one that is largely devoid of any AI influence, given that that potential productivity monster is far from integrated into American business. And it's an especially good counterbalance to two big foes for companies: higher rates and stubborn inflation.
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The Fed won't fix the housing market |
Today's Takeaway is by Myles Udland, Head of News.
The US housing market has a simple problem: affordability.
But Jay Powell and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve don't see this tension in the current economic expansion as theirs to resolve.
"We're not targeting housing price inflation, the cost of housing, or any of those things," Powell said in a press conference in January. "Those are very important things for people's lives. But they're not — you know, those are not the things we're targeting."
The Fed, rather, seeks to fulfill its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and stable prices, which it defines as inflation that averages 2%. The central bank's struggles on this latter part of its mandate are why interest rates are so high and are expected to remain there this week.
Moreover, housing costs — and rent, specifically — remain the biggest factor in keeping inflation elevated. Home prices are at record highs. And the outlook on whether the supply needed to meet demand will make its way to the market is mixed, at best.
Earlier this month, when Powell appeared on Capitol Hill, he was urged by lawmakers to do something about the cost of housing. Without proposing a solution, the Fed chair said the housing market is in a "very challenging situation."
When Powell takes to the dais on Wednesday, we expect at least one question on the matter of housing to make its way to the Fed chair. But we don't expect better answers.
After all, back in 2022, Powell called for a "reset" in the US housing market after low rates and a rapid shift in consumer desires created a frenzy during the pandemic. And while Powell called activity in the housing market "subdued" earlier this year, the Fed chair clearly views the central bank as being able to pull a single, indirect lever in the market — interest rates.
"We're also well aware that when we cut rates at the beginning of the pandemic, for example, the ... housing industry was helped more than any other industry," Powell said in his January press conference.
"And when we raise rates, the housing industry can be hurt, because it's a very interest-sensitive sector. On top of that, we have longer-run problems with the availability of housing. ... There hasn't been enough housing built. And these are not things that we have any tools to address."
And so they won't.
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Stocks on the move |
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Tilray (TLRY) shares jumped 11%, adding to Friday's gains on optimism over the prospects of rescheduling marijuana, or moving the substance to a less restrictive classification. On Friday Vice President Kamala Harris hosted a cannabis reform event, calling for a reclassification of marijuana. A rescheduling would be expected to alleviate certain tax burdens on cannabis companies.
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Canoo (GOEV) shares soared 75% on Monday after the electric vehicle maker said the Department of Commerce approved its Oklahoma City facility as a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ), allowing for the elimination or deferral of customs duties. The company noted the FTZ approval "marks a significant milestone that will accelerate Canoo’s Made in America electric vehicle manufacturing strategy, improve unit profitability and enable a faster path to breakeven." Canoo says it sources more than 90% of its parts from the US and allied nations.
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Rivian (RIVN) stock jumped more than 3% on Monday after the electric vehicle maker confirmed in a blog post owners can now access the Tesla (TSLA) Supercharger network, adding another automaker to Tesla's charging business.
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Hertz (HTZ) stock sank 6% to a record low before paring losses on Monday as investors digested yet another leadership change at the car rental company.
— Ines Ferré, Senior Reporter
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Chart of the day |
Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will grow faster than it originally expected this year as increased immigration adds more workers to the US labor force.
In a new research note on Sunday, Goldman cited increased immigration when raising its forecast for economic growth year over year in the fourth quarter to 2.4% from 2.1%. For the full year, Goldman now sees the US economy growing at a 2.7% annualized rate.
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For more graphics like this, follow Yahoo Finance on Instagram. |
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"One likely reason why GDP growth was stronger in 2023 is that immigration ran well above the recent historical average, boosting the size of the labor force and potential GDP," Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote in a research note on Sunday. "We have updated our payrolls and GDP forecasts to incorporate the ongoing boost from above-trend immigration."
Goldman's research suggests that immigration was 1.5 million above trend in 2023 and will come in 1 million above trend in 2024. To the team at Goldman, this helps explain the surprise job creation seen in the labor market over the last year, as well as the higher-than-expected growth seen across the economy. (Read more here.)
— Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter
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Earnings and economic calendar |
Tuesday
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Economic news: Building permits month-over-month, February (+2% expected, -0.3% previously); Housing starts, month-over-month, February (+7.4% expected, -14.8% previously)
Wednesday
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Economic news: FOMC rate decision; MBA mortgage applications, week ending March 15 (7.1% previously)
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Earnings: Chewy (CHWY), Five Below (FIVE), General Mills (GIS), Guess (GES), KB Home (KBH), Micron (MU)
Thursday
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Economic news: Philadelphia Fed business outlook, March (-1.3 expected, 5.2 previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending March 16 (215,000 expected, 209,000 previously); S&P US manufacturing PMI, March (51.8 expected, 52.2 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, March (52.0 expected, 52.3 previously); S&P US composite PMI, March (52.5 previously); Leading index, February (-0.2% expected, -0.4% previously); Existing home sales, February, month-over-month (-1.6% expected, 3.1% previously)
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Earnings: Accenture (ACN), Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS), FedEx (FDX), Lululemon (LULU), Nike (NKE)
Friday
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Economic news: No notable economic data.
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Earnings: No notable earnings.
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