The S&P 500 is at a new record going into the quarter's final trading day. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
|
|
|
|
What we're watching |
🏆 Stocks regain the summit: After a few down days, the S&P 500 rallied back on Wednesday, gaining 0.8% to close at a new all-time high of 5,248.50. It was also a good day for the Russell 2000, as the small-cap index rose 1.7% — a big day for an index only up 4% in 2024.
📆 The (first) final countdown: With markets closed on Good Friday, Thursday will mark the last day of the quarter for investors. If things hold steady, the S&P 500 will complete its fifth straight winning month, while the index is on pace for a gain north of 10%.
📈 Meme stocks are back-er: Yesterday, we wrote that meme stocks were back as the S&P 500's success broadened the bullish vibes into the zestier parts of the stock market — bitcoin $70,000, the twin IPOs of Reddit and Trump Media, and the return of big volatility to GameStop, among others. And with these moves come plenty of questions from investors. On Wednesday, Reddit fell 10% after that Hedgeye Risk Management released a report saying it'd be a great short. Now, we await a counteroffensive from angry redditor-shareholders.
😃 Sentiment, manufacturing, and more: The final batch of economic data before Friday's big PCE reading — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — hits Thursday led by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment numbers, which will be read closely after the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey was tinged with pessimism. The third estimate of Q4 GDP, pending home sales, and manufacturing activity will also join Thursday's weekly initial jobless claims report.
💊 Walgreens reports: Walgreens Boots Alliance reports for the first time since the drugstore chain got kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock is down 21% since the beginning of the year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Apple's iPhone revenue puzzle sparked a legal battle |
Today's Takeaway is by Hamza Shaban, Senior Reporter.
Apple's tough year just got worse.
At first glance, it may seem curious that the Justice Department is targeting Apple's power in the smartphone market just as the company is trying to diversify from its marquee hardware. But Apple's eye-popping growth in services — its impressive ability to extract more revenue from the periphery of its ecosystem — drives much of the hostility against it.
Sales of the iPhone still account for more than half of Apple's revenue. But the services that tie into the phone are amassing an increasingly important role in the company's business. For some of Apple's more bullish analysts, the promise of the services segment is the narrative fuel behind Cupertino's growth story and a pillar of its $2.6 trillion valuation.
That also explains the company's strategic predicament. As Apple leans more heavily into generating value by keeping people within its system — from things like App Store commissions and subscriptions — the more scrutiny it draws to its business practices.
The antitrust suit is the latest challenge weighing on the company's share price, which has flagged in recent months, in part on slowing iPhone sales in China.
Tech's growth narrative has finally shifted away from phones/apps to AI, a theme aptly illustrated by Bank of America Global Research analysts who Wednesday wrote that their recent trip to Asia was the first trip in two decades "where smartphones were barely a part of the conversation."
Services might be a long-term financial solution to the waning importance of the iPhone. It's also an invitation for regulators to investigate monopoly power and test the strength of the "Walled Garden," as Apple's closed ecosystem is often called.
To Apple, the seamlessness of the iPhone experience reflects the security of its products and the vibrance of its offerings, a message it is counting on Steve Jobs disciple Phil Schiller to affirm. Riffraff does not make it past the App Store's front desk, and Apple will not lend out jackets to any shady developers who show up flaunting the club's rules. And like any club, its success comes from the members sticking around.
But to the users and developers aggrieved by the company's practices (high club dues!), the walls are a means of exclusion. And even worse, that walled garden isn't just keeping people out — it's keeping people in.
Much of the conflict hinges on interpreting convenience or confinement, of attempting to prove loyalty or lock-in. Perhaps a drawn-out courtroom battle will spell out the spoils of Big Tech's conquest: that years later, people can't tell the difference.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chart of the day |
March is just about over, and it has definitively been a month of rotation in the stock market rally.
Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Utilities (XLU), Communications Services (XLC), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) all beat the returns of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) for the month.
Notably, this week put the year-to-date performance of Financials and Energy above that of the benchmark index, furthering signs of a broadening-out of a market rally that had initially largely been driven by gains in Tech and Communications Services (which contains several large tech companies).
"What's happened so far this year is more signs of a broadening under the surface," Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert told Yahoo Finance.
Chronert added that sectors that have outperformed are typically tied to economic growth while the sectors that have lagged the S&P 500 this year like Consumer Staples (XLP) would typically be considered defensive plays utilized when investors are prepping for an economic downturn.
"What we're arguing is that that move [in stocks to start the year] is reflecting, one, conviction in the AI growth opportunity, but two, is also reflecting increased confidence in a soft landing," Chronert said.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Multiple strategists have told Yahoo Finance this rotation likely has further to run if the economic outlook remains intact or improves. If, however, the outlook dampens, the "stealthy" rotation among sectors could shift once again, according to Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders.
"If we were to see that economic growth deterioration, even if it meant that the Fed can justify starting to ease sooner and ease more aggressively, ... even if you didn't see a major corrective phase for the indexes, you would probably see under the surface a shift away from more cyclical areas, probably back to more defensive areas," Sonders told Yahoo Finance.
— Josh Schafer
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Watch on Yahoo Finance Live |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Earnings and economic calendar |
Thursday
-
Economic data: Fourth quarter GDP growth, third estimate (+3.2% annualized pace expected; +3.2% annualized pace previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended March 23 (210,000 previously); Pending home sales, February (-4.9% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March (79.4 previously); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, March (-4 previously)
-
Earnings: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
Friday
-
Economic data: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, March (+0.4% expected, +0.3% previously); "Core" Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, March (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); Annual Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, March (+2.5% expected, +2.4% previously); Annual "Core" Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, March (+2.8% expected, +2.8% previously); Personal income, February (+0.4% expected, +1% previously); Personal spending, February (+0.5% expected, +0.2% previously); Good trade balance, February (-$89.7 billion expected, -$90.5 billion previously)
-
Earnings: Markets closed for Good Friday.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yahoo Finance App: Portfolio performance, news and alerts, stock data and all you need in a finance app. Download now. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Love this newsletter? Share with a friend
|
|
|
|
|
Was this newsletter shared with you?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
If you like what we do, please forward us to a friend.If you're not already subscribed, sign up right here. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|