Wednesday, Nov 13

👋 Good morning! What a day it was yesterday at Yahoo Finance Invest. Thanks to everyone who showed up and tuned in.

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Stocks took a breather Monday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.3%, the Nasdaq 0.1%, and the Dow 0.9%. Today's focus will be on the fresh CPI reading coming at 8:30 a.m. ET.

📉 Two steps forward, one step back: After jumping around 5% following last week's election, the stock market rally took a breather, and the S&P 500 pared back a handful of points to close back under 6,000. A few big players in the Trump Trade saw their runs halted: Tesla stock fell 6% after its over 40% run, and Coinbase closed 1.6% down after recovering from a 5% intraday drop. But while the index pulled back, bitcoin didn't, inching closer and closer to $90,000.

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🏷️ Inflation check: The Consumer Price Index for October is set for release Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, and economists expect it to rise 0.2%, on pace with September's reading. The rise would push the year-over-year figure up from 2.4% to 2.6% and keep the core figure (excluding food and energy) at 3.3%. The slower progress illustrates the "last mile" problem the Fed is grappling with, even as one key metric fell in October.

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🏦 From the Fed's mouth: We welcomed Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari Tuesday to our Yahoo Finance Invest conference, where he told us what, in his view, would most influence the Fed's December decision on rates. And with not much likely to change on the labor front, his eyes are once again on inflation. "I think there'd have to be a surprise on the inflation front to change the outlook so dramatically," Kashkari said. "That might give us pause." To pause, as it were. Currently, the CME Fedwatch tool shows a 62% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

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👀 Yield watch: Despite months of improvement, inflation continues to be a thorn in the economy's side. And coupled with the recent market enthusiasm, it may continue its leading role in 2025 — especially if inflationary tariff and corporate tax policies are enacted as expected. The 10-year Treasury yield, a measure of where people think long-term rates will go, jumped on Tuesday over 4.4%, back near the initial post-election high.

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💸 Everyone's buying: An S&P 500 at 6,000 might be an obvious sign that "everyone" is buying stocks right now, but Bank of America's fund manager survey put the index's record high into some more context, finding that managers overweight US stocks have tripled since the election as the 2025 outlook brightens for corporate America. Citi raised one thing to watch, however, especially as stocks take a breather: With stocks up so much, so fast, a specter of a post-election fade looms large if investors leave the table while they're ahead. 

⛽️ Gas prices will drop below $3 before Thanksgiving, analyst says.

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✈️ Boeing stock slides as company posts sharp decline in October deliveries due to strike.

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📦 Buffett's Berkshire is being packaged into a leveraged ETF.

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⚡️ Rivian, Volkswagen Group launch $5.8 billion joint venture.

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🚗 Cadillac execs bet 'baby Escalade' will maintain EV sales momentum.

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🎶 Spotify forecasts profit above estimates on cost cuts, user growth.

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📈 US bond yields ratchet higher before influential inflation data.

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🙋‍♂️ The Wall Street CEO raising his hand to run Trump’s economy.

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💉 Novavax stock plunges after quarterly earnings, but the company sees hope in licensing deals.

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🤝 Trump 1.0 was as tough on M&A as Biden. Trump 2.0 may not be different.

Today's Takeaway is by Brian Sozzi, Executive Editor.

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Optimism.

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Not cautious optimism on the incoming Trump administration. Just outright optimism.

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That was the vibe onstage and behind the scenes at the second annual Invest conference on Tuesday.

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With most leaders, that is.

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"Our financial situation is fixable. It is fixable in a way that is positive for the base that the president-elect has said that he wants to help. But it is not fixable by small amounts of tinkering. It is about wholesale change," Apollo Global CEO Marc Rowan told me. (He is my boss's boss's boss's boss's boss ... I think.)

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Rowan thinks the incoming administration will be helpful in terms of the regulatory backdrop, among other areas.

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Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan echoed Rowan’s sentiment in our chat.

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If anything, Macy’s CEO Tony Spring was a little less sure on the impact of possible Trump policies, notably tariffs.

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The Yahoo Finance team will have much more coming from Invest, so be sure to keep checking back on our homepage and app. What a day! I thank the Yahoo Finance community for spending the day with us in person and online — we wake up every day aiming to help grow your wealth and build a better investing life.

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Here's a roundup of the big moments from Invest, all in one place.

Americans are feeling increasingly better about the short-term path for inflation.

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On Tuesday, a new October survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed consumers expect inflation at 2.9% in one year, down from the 3% seen a year prior. This marked the lowest one-year outlook in four years and falls in line with a recent survey from the University of Michigan.

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The latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan revealed that consumers expect inflation to sit at 2.6% in a year, a decrease from last month's expectation of 2.7%. November's reading is the lowest since December 2020 and within the 2.3% to 3% range seen in the two years before the pandemic.

Of course, it should be noted both surveys were taken before the presidential election, which economists have noted could have inflation implications from tariffs, an immigration crackdown, and corporate tax changes.

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While price increases are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that the central bank has made significant "progress" in fighting inflation. He also added that inflation expectations "remain well anchored." Inflation expectations are considered a key part of the Fed's calculus because consumers' willingness to pay higher prices could, in fact, feed inflation.

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So that's the good news.

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On the less optimistic front, a fresh update on where inflation actually sits is due out Wednesday, and economists don't expect the report to "show much progress." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari said at Yahoo Finance Invest on Tuesday that a surprise to the upside in inflation data between now and the Fed's December meeting could prompt the central bank to pause cutting interest rates.

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— Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter

Wednesday

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• Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending Nov. 8 (-10.8% previously) Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, October (+0.2% expected, +0.2% previously); Core CPI, month-over-month, October (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); CPI, year-over-year, October (+2.6% expected, +2.4% previously); Core CPI, year-over-year, October (+3.3% expected, +3.3% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (+1.5% previously)

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• Earnings: Cisco (CSCO)

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Thursday

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• Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending Nov. 9 (225,000 expected, 221,000 previously); Producer Price Index, month-over-month, October (+0.2% expected, 0% previously); PPI, year-over-year, October (+2.3% expected, 1.8% previously); Import prices, month-over-month, January (-0.1% expected, +0.0% previously); Export prices, month-over-month, January (-3.2% previously); Industrial production, month-over-month, January (+0.4% expected, +0.1% previously); NAHB housing market index, February (44 prior)

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• Earnings: Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Applied Materials (AMAT), Disney (DIS), JD.com (JD), Oklo (OKLO)