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As you navigate your Sunday and Monday start-sit decisions, be mindful that you'll have more matchup information than usual. Four NFL games will be complete when we get to Sunday, which might help you break some fantasy ties as you decide if upside or floor is more important to your final choices.
Here's a traffic-light report to help you out.
✅ Green Light
Ladd McConkey at Falcons: He caught all six of his targets against Baltimore while Quentin Johnston went 0-for-5, mixing in multiple drops. It's shocking to me that McConkey has yet to see double-digit looks in any game, but this feels like the week the Chargers steer into their most reliable target. Justin Herbert will have plenty of time; the Atlanta pass rush is non-existent.
RB Bucky Irving at Panthers: You get a little anxious with the crowded backfield in Tampa Bay. Rachaad White will always have a role and even Sean Tucker scored last week, but Irving has the best metrics of the group and he's started to become the featured player. And the Panthers, as you know, are the dream matchup for running backs in 2024. Start Irving with confidence.
QB Matthew Stafford at Saints: He's a lock for 250 yards and two touchdowns these days, with the upside for more. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both healthy again, this is a passing game to hang your hat on.
TE Taysom Hill vs. Rams: Obviously he offers no floor, but that's not uncommon at tight end. But we know Hill is the most powerful goal-line option the Saints have, and the New Orleans offensive line has quietly gotten back to full health in recent weeks.
🫤 Yellow Light
RB Gus Edwards at Falcons: If you want a juicy YPC, look elsewhere. If you want pass-catching work, we can't help you. But Edwards carries goal-line equity, and I suspect a short score will push him into double-digit fantasy points this week.
QB Sam Darnold vs. Cardinals: The Arizona matchup is slightly harder than average, but Darnold's been more consistent than many realize. He's posted a QB rating over 100 in 9-of-11 starts, and he has multiple touchdown passes in eight games.
QB Russell Wilson at Bengals: I realize Cincinnati is the NFL's ultimate carnival team — they score a bunch, they allow a bunch— but Pittsburgh's offensive identity rarely changes, no matter the matchup. The Steelers want to run to set up the run, which means Wilson probably doesn't make it past 30 attempts no matter how the game goes. I suppose he's playable in some spots, but I'm not eager to punch the ticket.
TE Zach Ertz vs. Titans: Normally I'd be lukewarm on a 34-year-old tight end who specializes in the catch-and-fall, but with Austin Ekeler probably out, Ertz will be the first read whenever Jayden Daniels needs a short throw around the middle of the field.
🛑 Red Light
RB Nick Chubb at Broncos: Touchdown deodorant saved him in Week 12, but he's been a diminished runner all year, yet to pass 60 yards on the ground. We talk about Denver's sterling secondary a lot, but the Broncos also have a top-five rushing defense.
RB Travis Etienne Jr. vs. Texans: Tank Bigsby is expected back to muddy the playing time, and Houston's run defense ranks No. 2 in rushing DVOA. Anytime I can proactively avoid the 2024 Jaguars, I'm in favor of it.
TE Mark Andrews vs. Eagles: He had the nifty touchdown on Monday night but his market share is usually modest when Isaiah Likely is around, and Baltimore's unlikely to throw more than 30 passes against anyone. The Eagles have also been excellent in seam coverage all year.
WR Jauan Jennings at Bills: This one hurts, because I've been invested in his breakout all year. But Brock Purdy is a question mark and the Buffalo area is welcoming a major snowstorm. It's a good week to tuck Jennings on your bench, preferably with a ski cap on.
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