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Let’s get defensive, people. We are running out of ways to improve our fantasy rosters as we approach the money weeks, but tinkering with our team defense is always in play.
Generally speaking, fantasy managers tend to approach team defenses in one of two ways: We either draft-and-hold a highly-ranked D/ST, giving the position little in-season consideration, or we prefer to churn defenses throughout the year, streaming based on matchups.
The problem with the first method is that we're all awful at identifying great defenses in the preseason. This year, the consensus top-five were the Niners, Ravens, Jets, Browns and Cowboys. None of those D/STs are currently relevant in fantasy; none rank inside the overall top 10.
The problem with streaming isn’t the concept itself, but rather our execution. We often focus on not-quite the right things when we do it. We look for quality defenses facing bad teams. It’s an approach that can certainly lead us to the right destination — picking on Will Levis has been a win — but there’s a more reliable way to get where we wanna go.
Fantasy scoring at D/ST is mostly driven by splashy game-changing events — turnovers, sacks, defensive TDs — which are not the easiest things to predict. But we know those events are much more likely to occur when a QB drops back to pass. We don’t get sacks and pick-sixes on hand-offs. It’s no accident that Dallas, Cleveland and Las Vegas — the three teams leading the NFL in pass attempts — have allowed the seventh, second and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
When streaming defenses, the simplest approach with the greatest upside is to purely target passing volume.
The league’s top defenses in reality are not guaranteed to be elite fantasy assets, by the way. Philadelphia is the NFL’s top D in total yardage by a decent margin and they rank fourth in points-against, but they are only 10th in fantasy scoring. In our game, the Eagles have only delivered two double-digit point totals, which is nothing special.
Here's a short list of defenses that have extremely favorable late-season fantasy schedules, three of which are real-life terrible. It would take a fair amount of courage to start, say, the Bengals in a must-win fantasy week. So if you want to lose honorably with Philly — hey, go for it.
Arizona Cardinals - SEA, NE, at CAR, at LAR
The Cards are actually a legit defense, so you can feel OK about this squad. Their schedule is particularly friendly over the next two weeks. Seattle and New England rank seventh and tenth respectively in pass attempts on the season and fifth and sixth in fantasy points allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals - at DAL, at TEN, CLE, DEN
You hate this one, right? Of course you do. Cincinnati’s defense is objectively bad. But this team’s three upcoming opponents have been scandalously generous to opposing defenses in fantasy, and Denver is one of the league’s more pass-heavy teams. It’s an incredible setup.
Jacksonville Jaguars - at TEN, NYJ, at LV, TEN
Yeah, um … not sure I’d actually pull the trigger on a Jaguars add. Feels like that’s one or two steps beyond recklessness. Still, that schedule is nearly perfect in fantasy terms, including two matchups with Levis, the NFL’s pick-sixiest QB.
New Orleans Saints - at NYG, WAS, at GB, LV
It’s the bookends we like here, not so much the Week 15-16 matchups. Also, the Saints are like an AI-generated team, utterly detached from normalcy. We never know what’s coming — except we do know the Giants and Raiders are on the schedule, which is great news.
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