👋 Welcome back! It's the fantasy semifinals for most managers, which means your lineup decisions are as important as ever. We're here to help you prepare! 

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In this edition: We cover the latest NFL news, predict this year's most likely unlikely fantasy heroes, preview tonight's TNF clash and more.

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Today's Get to the Points! is written by Andy Behrens. For the web version, click here. To sign up for free, click here.

Michael Penix Jr. to start, Kirk Cousins to the sideline: It’s a move that simply had to be made. Cousins is clearly compromised physically, immobile and unable to throw with sufficient velocity. Over Atlanta’s last five games, he’s delivered only one touchdown pass and he’s been intercepted nine times. 

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We should interpret this switch as more than just an indictment of Cousins, of course. It’s also an endorsement of a 24-year-old rookie QB coming off a stellar collegiate career. Penix isn’t a dual-threat proactive running QB, but he was a brilliant passer over multiple seasons at Washington. He’s now the guy who gets to throw to Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Bijan Robinson, which gives him and his playmakers plenty of fantasy appeal. The upcoming matchup with the Giants is another point in Penix's favor. He's fully approved for superflex and deep-league use.

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Alas, the Jameis Winston era has ended in Cleveland: It was a fun ride until it wasn’t. We were so close to getting Winston in a matchup with a generous Bengals pass defense. Drat. He’s thrown eight interceptions over his last three games, including multiple pick-sixes, so of course the benching is justifiable. The far-less-aggressive Dorian Thompson-Robinson will draw the start vs. Cincinnati, with Winston serving as QB2.

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Mason Rudolph will start at Indianapolis: Obviously, this doesn't have a big impact on the value of skill players in the Titans offense. It’s worth noting, however, because Will Levis has been the league’s pick-sixiest QB, and sharp fantasy managers have been streaming defenses that face his team all season. It seems that free square is no longer available.

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Nick Chubb, Younghoe Koo and Sincere McCormick headed to IR: We knew Chubb was done for the year after fracturing his foot, and the early indications on McCormick’s ankle injury weren’t great. The news on Koo (hip) was a small surprise, however. Riley Patterson will presumably take over kicking duties for Atlanta.

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One other kicking note: Matt Prater returned to practice for Arizona. The 40-year-old kicking legend has been on IR for most of the season, recovering from meniscus surgery. If you’ve been relying on Chad Ryland, it might be time to take evasive action. 

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Jaylen Waddle considered day-to-day: We should never get too bent out of shape by Wednesday DNPs, but Waddle’s situation is clearly one to watch. It would be nice to have him in the mix in Week 16, seeing as Miami has recently rediscovered his receiving talents.

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Isaac Guerendo DNP on Wednesday: Look, we're sick of writing about the Niners backfield, and you're sick of reading about it. Understood. Just please know that Guerendo picked up a hamstring issue to go with his preexisting foot issue, so we'll need to monitor his status this week. 

For some of us, it was Patrick Jeffers back in 1999. 

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For others, it was Billy Volek in 2004. Or Jerome Harrison in 2009, Tim Tebow in 2011 or Damien Williams in 2018. 

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Each year, some previously un-hyped player emerges from the depths of a random team’s roster and steamrolls through the closing weeks of the NFL season. These individuals become fantasy playoff heroes, legends of December — unforgettable names to anyone who added them. 

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I would absolutely send Patrick Jeffers a holiday card each year if I knew his whereabouts. A little seasonal good cheer is the very least of what I owe that man. 

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At any rate, here are four of this year’s most plausible (yet also most random) candidates to detonate in the money weeks…

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⚜️ Kendre Miller, Saints: Listen, there are some Miller true believers in this world who’ve had the “I TOLD YOU SO!” tweet in their saved drafts for the past two years. I am not actually one of those zealots, but I’m open to the idea that Miller can help us. He’s looked entirely competent over his last two games on limited usage, and he might just find himself as the centerpiece of his team’s offense if Alvin Kamara (groin) is sidelined. New Orleans travels to Lambeau this week before hosting the Raiders in a prime matchup in Week 17. 

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🐶 Jerome Ford, Browns: Ford was a high-priority waiver add this week after the Nick Chubb injury news, and understandably so. He’s a back with undeniable big-play ability, but also equally undeniable small-play ability. It’s a mixed bag, honestly. Ford is headed for a beefy workload vs. the Bengals, though, so we can reasonably chase the upside.

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😎 Hollywood Brown, Chiefs: Yeah, this feels like cheating, because Brown is certainly not just some dude rising from the bottom of the depth chart. He’s a well-established name returning from injury at a convenient time and ahead of a friendly matchup with Houston. Kansas City's offense is crying out for playmakers; it shouldn’t be too difficult to imagine Patrick Mahomes — if healthy, of course — finding a use for Brown.

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🤠 Cooper Rush, Cowboys: OK, this potential fantasy event has the strongest possible Volek vibes, because: 

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A) it’s galactically unlikely to happen, and… 

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B) even if it does, there’s zero chance it continues through Championship Week. 

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(Volek was a spent force after back-to-back 400-yard games. He bombed in title week: 111 yards, no TDs, 2 INTs.) 

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Rush may find himself involved in a wild shootout with Baker Mayfield and the Bucs on Sunday, which gives him a certain fantasy appeal. If you are bullish on CeeDee Lamb, then by extension you should be semi-interested in Rush as well. Unfortunately, in Championship Week he travels to Philly, where the Eagles defense is likely to crumple him up and dispose of him properly.

This week, TNF presents us with another clash of flawed-yet-playoff-worthy division rivals, a matchup between the Broncos and Chargers featuring several notable fantasy assets. Let’s dive in…

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Bo Nix is a wild ride: He also has a shot to be a fantasy difference-maker. Nix really took us on a journey last week, with three TD passes and three picks, reminding us that he can be a boom/bust guy within the space of a single series. He’s a spicy dual-threat rookie who remains unattached in over one-third of Yahoo leagues, which is somewhat surprising. Tonight, he gets a Chargers defense that just allowed 40 points to Tampa Bay. In Week 17, Nix will face Cincinnati, a team capable of giving up 40-plus to any opponent at any time. Denver’s first-year QB has a real shot to emerge as one of the decisive players in the fantasy playoffs.

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None of tonight’s running backs can be trusted: The highest-scoring back on either of these teams this season is J.K. Dobbins, who is currently on IR and not eligible to return for another week. The second highest-scoring back is Javonte Williams at RB31, but it’s been weeks since he had the featured role for the Broncos. Fantasy managers have been burning FAB resources all year chasing Gus Edwards, Audric Estimé, Kimani Vidal and others, yet no back on either team — aside from Dobbins — has truly been playable. 

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Ladd McConkey, locked-in fantasy starter: He’s delivered either 80 receiving yards or a touchdown in each of his last four games and he’s on pace to finish the season with 78 catches, 1,074 yards and six scores. Not bad for a guy who produced a 58-762-7 stat line in his best collegiate season. McConkey is already one of the game’s smoothest route-runners. He’s been highly effective in contested situations (12 for 20), and his passer-rating when targeted is a healthy 118.6. 

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Just in case you’re worried about a visit to Patrick Surtain II Island tonight, please note that McConkey has lined up in the slot on over 70% of passing snaps this year. That’s an area of the field Surtain only rarely visits. Fire up McConkey with the usual confidence.

If you were among the countless fantasy managers recently eliminated from the playoffs due in part to uncharacteristically quiet weeks from Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry … well, first of all, thank you for continuing to read this newsletter. 

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You are a true fantasy sicko if you are still consuming content after being bounced from the championship bracket — particularly under such painful circumstances. We sincerely appreciate your commitment. 

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Secondly, if you took the L last weekend with Barkley or Henry on the squad, let’s hope you can take comfort in the fact that your defeat is gonna be quite a bit more memorable (although not more profitable) than any league title.

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Club you don't want to join: Unfortunately, you've actually joined a pretty exclusive club. There’s nothing in fantasy quite like the experience of riding a historic individual season into the playoffs, then getting sabotaged by the very player who’d carried you for 14 weeks. 

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Just ask one of your league’s old-timers what it was like to have drafted Tom Brady back in 2007. That was of course the year the Patriots dealt for both Randy Moss and Wes Welker, transforming the offense from a balanced, productive unit into an unstoppable futuristic war machine. Brady produced a passing season unlike any in the history of the league. He opened with a streak of 10 straight games in which he threw at least three TD passes, including three weeks with at least five. 

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It was both outrageous and, in that era, almost unfair. You simply could not lose in fantasy with Brady at the top of the roster — that is, until the playoffs rolled around.

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In the 15th week of the greatest individual QB season anyone had ever imagined, the New York Jets held Brady to 140 yards, zero TDs and one interception. Absolute devastation. Welker and Moss combined for only eight catches and 109 yards. Laurence Maroney scored the game’s lone offensive touchdown. A complete fantasy nightmare. Tens of thousands of us failed to advance to Week 16.

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You had nailed the most important preseason evaluation and drafted your way into an all-time passing attack, easily earning the top-seed in the playoffs … and then you landed in the third-place matchup. Where, naturally, you destroyed your foe. Facing Miami in Championship Week, Brady was again Brady (3 TDs) and Moss was emphatically Moss (2 TDs). 

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Bottom line: If you are relatively new to fantasy and your Barkley or Henry-led team was just crushed, we need to make you aware of one of this game’s inviolable laws — your freshly eliminated roster is definitely about to go off. League scoring records are at risk. All that production you needed and expected last week is about to hit when it’s of little use. Sorry in advance, but this is how it has always been.