Plus, the latest ADP shifts ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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👋 Welcome back, amigos! As you’re surveying the NFL landscape, trying to figure out your fantasy leans, one word pops up over and over again.
Trust.
Which teams do you trust? Which play designers do you trust? We’re always trying to learn who a quarterback trusts — who does he throw to in a key spot, or what back will he rely upon for a critical blitz pickup?
In this edition: The assignment is simple enough — let’s run through some offenses I trust and don’t trust as we close in on the 2025 season. We'll also examine the latest ADP risers and fallers and more.
Get to the Points! is written by Scott Pianowski. For the web version, click here. To sign up for free, click here. | | | | |
5 OFFENSES IN THE CIRCLE OF TRUST | | Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry headline the reasons to invest in the Baltimore offense. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | 🐦⬛ Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson quickly became a star in his pro career, winning MVP in his second season. But last year we saw his experience and maturity catch up to his physical talents, and the result was the highest scoring fantasy season (in basic scoring) of all time.
- Zay Flowers joined Jackson on the Pro Bowl roster, Derrick Henry sprung for 18 touchdowns and a silly 5.9 YPC, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman combined for 20 touchdowns.
- There are so many right answers here.
🐅 Cincinnati Bengals - The setup was perfect last year, and it looks perfect again.
- Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback, capable of challenging for MVP.
- The offense is tied to three dynamic skill players — Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown — and the distribution is narrow.
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The Cincinnati defense is a leaky unit, likely to force regular shootouts. And star DE Trey Hendrickson isn’t happy about his contract. Carnival life for the win.
🦁 Detroit Lions - We have to acknowledge a pair of big losses — OC Ben Johnson left to take the Chicago coaching job, and star center Frank Ragnow retired.
- Still, Jared Goff is entering his fifth year in Detroit and he’s not going to forget all the successful plays they’ve run.
- Goff is working with perhaps the best skill talent in the NFL; I’ll sign off on any of the six primary Lions this year.
🤠 Dallas Cowboys - Nobody trusts their running back room and the defense could be a mess, too.
- Ultimately that can turn into a fantasy positive, with veteran QB Dak Prescott throwing the ball all over the yard, focusing on star receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
- It’s possible the market is underrating TE Jake Ferguson, a possible Third Amigo in this passing game.
🦅 Philadelphia Eagles - Last year they ran all over the NFL en route to a title, with Saquon Barkley going off and Jalen Hurts scoring a bunch from the 1-yard line.
- I suspect the Philly passing game might be a little under-appreciated this season, given that last year’s extreme run rate (driven by ideal game flow most weeks) could be hard to replicate.
- A.J. Brown is one of the most talented receivers in the world, and DeVonta Smith has been a screaming draft value all summer.
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5 OFFENSES OUT OF THE CIRCLE OF TRUST | 🐬 Miami Dolphins - Last year everything fell apart, mostly because of a poor offensive line and an injury-prone quarterback. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are mostly running it all back again.
- Tyreek Hill didn’t have a 30-yard catch after Week 1, and you get the idea he’s not bought into the current regime. I suspect this is Hill’s last season in Miami — and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded in the middle of the year.
✈️ New York Jets - The most exciting thing here is the running of Justin Fields — give him a full season and he could easily collect 1,000 yards on the ground.
- Unfortunately, when a mobile QB runs, no one else on the roster really benefits. We do acknowledge that Fields’s athleticism will widen defenses and open running lanes for the backs, but the Jets might use a cumbersome three-headed monster (Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis).
- Garrett Wilson reminds me of a younger Terry McLaurin — a star receiver held down by the limitations of his ever-changing QBs.
⚜️ New Orleans Saints - There’s look-out-below potential here. The Saints probably don’t have a legitimate quarterback on the roster, and you can talk down the skill talent (Alvin Kamara is losing efficiency and just turned 30; Chris Olave has dealt with regular concussions; Rashid Shaheed tore the meniscus in his knee midway through a breakout season).
- The New Orleans dream is that they’re in pole position to draft Arch Manning next year (or someday), but what if Manning doesn’t want to play for a franchise this empty? We’ve seen that story before.
🐶 Cleveland Browns - Say this for the Browns, they like to throw different QBs at us.
- Last year Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe all started games for Cleveland. Any surprise they went 3-14?
- Now aging Joe Flacco is the temporary starter, with three quirky options behind him (for now) on the depth chart: Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
- I like Kevin Stefanski as a coach, I really do. But I don’t see how you turn this into a winning hand. Cleveland will try to turn every game into a low-scoring rock fight; that’s not optimal for fantasy.
🦾 Pittsburgh Steelers - Just ask yourself a simple question — when’s the last time OC Arthur Smith or QB Aaron Rodgers added anything favorable to your fantasy life?
- Pittsburgh is another team that would sign up for a season of 13-12 final scores right now, if given the chance.
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BIGGEST DRAFT RISERS AND FALLERS | | Here's a quick look at some of the most interesting names in the top 10 risers and fallers in Yahoo ADP over the last week.
📈 ADP risers
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots: Every time you turn on the television, he’s making a splash play. He shouldn’t have much trouble pushing past Rhamondre Stevenson on the depth chart.
Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers: It’s been a lost summer for Najee Harris, and even with star LT Rashawn Slater out for the year, Jim Harbaugh can dial up a running game. Other rookies rising up draft boards: receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Matthew Golden.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders: Perhaps he’s the No. 3 option in the offense, but the tree is narrow and Geno Smith is a professional QB.
📉 ADP fallers
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers: No one expects a repeat of the miracle 2024 season, especially with Liam Coen gone. And Chris Godwin might miss multiple games to open the season.
Davante Adams, WR, Rams: There’s generally an adjustment period on a new team, and Matthew Stafford (back) hasn’t done much this summer. No one is pining to see Adams and Jimmy Garoppolo team up again.
Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants: The hope was that he’d challenge Devin Singletary for the understudy job and eventually push Tyrone Tracy, but a hamstring injury has held the rookie down this month. | | | | |
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And that's not all! Head over to the Yahoo Fantasy Plus homepage to see all the great features, including Draft Scout and Instant Mock Drafts. If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy Plus yet, now’s the time. | | | | |
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