Monday, June 08

👋 Good morning! Investors have had a long weekend to think about a rough Friday.

Fortunately, we had a huge sports weekend to distract us: The NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Finals, Roland Garros, and the Monaco Grand Prix.

But now it's Monday.

On the agenda this morning:

📉 Stocks reel from the coming rate hike

📆 Things you should circle on the calendar

🚀 Bracing for the largest IPO on record

🔥 The economy is running hot, hot, hot

☁️ Oracle reminds us the quarter isn't over

Here's our Breaking Business Reporter, Jake Conley, with a preview of the week ahead.

The Yahoo Finance Morning Brief is produced by Ethan Wolff-Mann and Hamza Shaban. For a web-based version of this email, please click here to view online.

📉 Stocks reel from the coming rate hike

Investors step into the week after a Friday that saw markets reprice toward a rate hike this year, pushing all three major indexes deeply into the red. A SpaceX IPO, Oracle earnings, and more inflation readings will test the traders' resiliency.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Friday down 2.6% for an equal weekly loss. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 1.4% on Friday to finish down 0.6% on the week. In the worst showing of the major indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) plunged by 4.2% on Friday to end the five-day stretch down 4.7%, or well past 1,000 points.

📆 Things we've circled on the calendar

FILE - Elon Musk attends the finals for the NCAA wrestling championship, March 22, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

Coming into the week, all eyes will be on Friday, when Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) will open for trading in what will be the largest IPO in history. At an IPO price of $135 per share, the rocketry and communications company would be valued at roughly $1.78 trillion.

Elsewhere in the corporate world, fiscal fourth quarter earnings from Oracle (ORCL) on Wednesday will headline the week, in another key read on the state of the AI and computing trade. Adobe (ADBE) will report earnings on Thursday.

Investors also face another stretch chock-full of key economic data after last week's unexpectedly hot nonfarm payrolls report, with the second leg of the Fed's dual mandate — inflation — in focus this week.

Taking center stage will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Wednesday, set to give investors a key read on where and how inflation is showing up in sticker prices for Americans. That data will be followed by Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) report, offering a glimpse of how prices are moving on input goods purchased by manufacturers and other producers.

Finishing out the week will be the University of Michigan's bimonthly reading on US economic sentiment and inflation expectations. The headline consumer sentiment index fell to an all-time low reading of 44.8 in May as Americans turned dour on the state of the economy. Economists are looking for a reading of 46 on Friday.

🚀 Bracing for the largest IPO on record

FILE PHOTO: The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy Booster creates sound waves as it lifts off on its 12th test flight from the SpaceX launch complex in Starbase, Texas, U.S., May 22, 2026. REUTERS/Steve Nesius/File Photo

If all goes as planned on Friday, shares of Elon Musk's SpaceX will hit the Nasdaq at $135 per share for the company's public offering, valuing the company at roughly $1.8 trillion and likely making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

For investors, the IPO opens up two major questions. The first of which is, to simplify: What is SpaceX's main business? While the company is largely known for its rocketry advances and Starlink satellite network, SpaceX sees its largest market in AI, part of Elon Musk's ambition to lead the way on placing data centers in space.

Per the company's own figures, SpaceX's AI business line makes up more than 90% of its roughly $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM) projections. Putting so much weight on unproven technology could make for a bumpy ride for investors, Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial, wrote in an emailed commentary.

"The world needs ambitious companies pushing the boundaries of what is possible, but the ride between here and the stars may be too turbulent for some," Shipp wrote.

The IPO is also set to test one of the core pillars of the US equity market: index funds.

The Nasdaq exchange, where SpaceX is listing, has in recent months relaxed requirements for how long a stock must be public, and how many shares must be available, before listing on the benchmark Nasdaq 100. The move sets the stage for SpaceX to be included in the index within weeks — thereby forcing index managers to buy up shares.

S&P Dow Jones, the other major US exchange operator, has refused to change its requirements, meaning SpaceX will have to wait much longer to be included in the S&P 500. The difference between the two benchmark indexes could set the stage for major rebalancing.

🔥 The economy is running hot, hot, hot

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MAY 12: Job seekers attend a small business summit and job fair hosted by the Chicago Department of Aviation on May 12, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. More than 100 vendors, airlines, aviation support companies and local, state and federal government agencies were taking job applications at the event. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

If Friday's nonfarm payrolls report's numbers put to bed any remaining concerns about the overall strength of the US labor market, the upcoming week's data will speak to the other side of the Fed's dual mandate: inflation.

In what has been widely read as a blowout report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the US economy added 172,000 jobs against estimates of 88,000. The market swung in response to fully price in at least one quarter-point rate hike by the end of the year, making good on a growing consensus that, given a strong labor market and sticky inflation, the next move from the Fed was likely to be a rate hike.

Data on consumer prices on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday is likely to confirm that outlook as the fallout of the oil shock in Iran keeps prices hot, with energy prices potentially beginning to bleed into so-called "core" prices. Economists are expecting headline CPI to have grown 4.2% in May year over year, above April's 3.8% increase; while core CPI is expected to have grown 2.9% against April's 2.8% step-up.

"With inflation now closer to 4%, policy is much more stimulative in real terms than was expected, and with the economy demonstrating remarkable stability, the need for cyclical stimulus seems much smaller than policymakers had expected," James Egelhof, chief US economist for BNP Paribas, noted on Friday.

"This year's strong growth, gradually tightening labor market and persistently high inflation strike us as markedly different to what officials expected when the Fed cut rates last fall, and we expect monetary policy to adjust accordingly."

☁️ Oracle reminds us the quarter isn't over

U.S. President Donald Trump reacts afer delivering remarks on AI infrastructure as Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison speaks at the Roosevelt room at White House in Washington, U.S., January 21, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

For investors looking to assess the state of the AI trade whether demand in the cloud space is holding up, look no further an Oracle's (ORCL) fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday.

While Larry Ellison's Oracle saw an extended down period through the first quarter of the year, the company is now up 12% year to date, and Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick said demand for its services should remain healthy as the AI boom keeps accelerating.

"Demand for AI infrastructure has driven a real inflection in public cloud revenue and backlog growth, enabling long-standing leaders to reaccelerate off an increasingly large base," Zelnick wrote.

The stressor to watch for companies like Oracle, Zelnick warned, is the "upfront costs required to massively scale new capacity to meet demand" — increasingly financed not through cash flow but debt markets.

The five major hyperscalers issued roughly $121 billion in US corporate bonds in 2025, more than four times their 2020–2024 annual average of $28 billion. In 2026, that figure is projected to reach $175 billion, per Bank of America, with Oracle the largest issuer in class.

Major debt issuance isn't necessarily a problem so long as the industry's massive AI investments ultimately produce returns that justify the growing leverage burden. The risk, of course, would be that demand dries up, leaving these companies over-leveraged without the revenue to support them.

📆 Earnings and economic calendar

Monday

Economic data: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, May (+3.64% previously)
Earnings calendar: Wise Group (WSE), The Campbell's Company (CPB), Vail Resorts (MTN), FuelCell Energy (FCEL)

Tuesday

Economic data: NFIB small business optimism, May (96 expected, 95.9 previously); ADP weekly employment change, week ended May 23 (+35,750 previously); Trade balance, April (-$55.5 billion expected, -$60.3 billion previously); Existing home sales, month-on-month, May (+0.9% expected, +0.2% previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, April final reading (+0.5% previously)
Earnings calendar: Casey's General Stores (CASY), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM), SailPoint (SAIL), VinFast Auto (VFS), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC)

Wednesday

Economic data: CPI, month-on-month, May (+0.5% expected, +0.6% previously); Core CPI, month-on-month, May (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); CPI, year-on-year, May (+4.2% expected, +3.8% previously); Core CPI, year-on-year, May (+2.9% expected, +2.8% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ended June 5 (-2.5% previously); Real average hourly earnings, year-on-year, May (-0.3% previously); Real average weekly earnings, year-on-year, May (-0.2% previously)
Earnings calendar: Oracle (ORCL), Core & Main (CNM), Chewy (CHWY), Navan (NAVN), J.Jill (JILL)

Thursday

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended June 6 (225,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended May 30 (1.78 million previously); PPI final demand, month-on-month, May (+0.7% expected, +1.4% previously); PPI ex food and energy, month-on-month, May (+0.5% expected +1% previously); PPI final demand, year-on-year, May (+6% previously); PPI ex food and energy, year-on-year, May (+5.2% previously)
Earnings calendar: Adobe (ADBE), Lennar Corporation (LEN, LEN-B), RH (RH), McGraw Hill (MH)

Friday

Economic data: U. Mich. sentiment, June preliminary reading (46 expected, 44.8 previously); U. Mich. current conditions, June preliminary reading (45.8 previously); U. Mich. expectations, June preliminary reading (44.1 previously); U. Mich. 1-year inflation, June preliminary reading (+4.8% previously); U. Mich. 5-10 year inflation, June preliminary reading (+3.9% previously)
Earnings calendar: No notable earnings

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