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| Good morning! We thought Monday was a good day, but it had nothing on one of the biggest Tuesdays we've seen in a while. With multiple parts of the tech trade and the Iran situation showing green lights, we're back to record highs for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). The S&P 500 gained 1.8% to close at 7,736.52 (wow) as the Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 2.6% and the Dow (^DJI) 1.7%. | - Palantir shows that not all AI success looks the same
- A wave of optimism sweeps through markets
- Investors care about SpaceX's results — but Thursday is the real test
- Wall Street really isn't buying what Kevin Warsh is selling
| What we're watching Wednesday: A potential Iran deal and how investors respond to SpaceX results are at the top of our watchlist, but we've got many big corporate results as well: Walt Disney (DIS), Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Western Digital (WDC), Sandisk (SNDK), Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), eBay (EBAY), DoorDash (DASH), Block (XYZ), and more — a major survey of corporate America indeed. Jobs week rolls on with ADP's private payrolls, expected to show continued strength in the labor market. | |
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| | Market snapshot Key market moves from last session | | | Powered by See the bigger picture. | | |
| Palantir shows that not all AI success looks the same | Palantir CEO Alex Karp visits "The Claman Countdown" at Fox Business Network Studios on July 27, 2026 in New York City. (John Lamparski/Getty Images) | Many companies contributed to the S&P 500's nearly 2% jump on Tuesday. After the hyperscalers got their round of applause on Monday, other parts of the AI trade seemed to fall into place. Chipmaker stocks rallied. And Palantir (PLTR) jumped 29% (not a typo) after reporting what its CEO called an "otherworldly" quarter. With this rally, the company is within shouting distance of where it began what has been a rough year as Palantir has been caught in the "SaaSpocalypse" that had investors wondering whether native AI products like Claude would simply obviate specialized software. But investors read Tuesday's results from Palantir as an indication that the pie may be big enough for everyone to take a big slice — as bullish a piece of news as we've seen. As Deutsche Bank wrote in a glowing note on Tuesday, "as much of application software is still trying to prove AI is truly incremental, Palantir increasingly looks like a time traveler, having already arrived in the AI future others are still aspiring towards." It's possible that Palantir's positioning in the marketplace, helping the Feds and private sector implement AI, makes it unique. But the big question for markets is whether this might indicate that the reports of the death of software have been greatly exaggerated. | |
| A big wave of optimism sweeps through markets as investors dare to hope | Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who hinted at good news. (Aaron Schwartz / AFP via Getty Images) | The stock market's sizable jump to record highs on Tuesday showed just what can happen when multiple key narratives of today's market all pull together in the same direction. Palantir's reminder that the AI trade may, in fact, benefit software companies too — and the companies for which it works — formed another leg under the bull market's stool, along with the chip stocks' rising fortunes. (Strong compute demand is set to keep data center demand strong, which in turn will keep chip demand strong.) But the backdrop mattered too. Much as investors may try to focus on AI and not the potential for Middle East quagmire, Tuesday's market action showed just how much pent-up anxiety over Iran still exists. When Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that there's a chance of a deal "today or tomorrow," that glimmer of hope gave investors permission to dare to dream. Not only would that dream include lower oil prices and uncertainty while raising stability and consumer spending power, but it would also mean that a challenged Fed might be able to successfully avoid a rate hike as the bond market calls its tough-talking bluff. (Treasurys rose and yields sank on Tuesday.) But even if the market gets a deal, the fact that the first one didn't hold may mean investors reserve a more full-throated celebration (e.g., a massive rally) until they're convinced of its durability. | |
| Investors care about SpaceX's results — but Thursday is the real test | A mural of Elon Musk with the words ''Ad Astra'' can be seen on Boca Chica Blvd. next to SpaceX's South Texas facility in Cameron County, Texas, on July 22, 2026. (Reginald Mathalone/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | SpaceX had a very good day in the stock market, gaining 9.4% ahead of its first quarterly report as a public company. But after that report, investors may take some of those gains back. By the numbers, the company beat analyst expectations, pulling in $7.8 billion versus $6.8 billion, and posting better-than-expected adjusted earnings. SpaceX's valuation, as our Brian Sozzi noted using our AlphaSpace data, is very high, if you're going by the book. But most investors are not going by any book, instead judging the company on how plausible its hopes and dreams are. With that in mind, does how the stock trades today matter that much? Are early-days results meaningful? One could argue no, depending on how investors react to the forward-looking statements Musk and co. utter. What does matter, probably, is what happens on Thursday, Aug. 6, when a key lockup date ends and a huge amount of investors who own SpaceX stock will be able to dump it if they so choose. | |
| Wall Street isn't buying what Kevin Warsh is selling | (Win McNamee/Getty Images) | Nine Fed governors may have voted to keep interest rates where they are, but Chairman Kevin Warsh is getting quite a lot of grief for it. The markets, certainly, made their feelings clear as the chair spoke, and the "credibility issue" has been at the forefront of much of the commentary. But a client note from Bank of America's economics team lays bare just how much damage Warsh did to his reputation. "We don't think the Fed can get markets to do its work indefinitely by just talking tough," the team, led by Aditya Bhave, wrote. "It has to eventually walk the talk, or risk losing credibility." Bhave and co. noted that Warsh was "all hat, no cattle." Sidestepping questions, looking at alternative inflation measures, and looking to markets to tighten themselves do not invite confidence that the Fed will spring into action, the BofA team noted. With yields down on Tuesday as Treasurys roared back amid hopes of an Iran deal, some pressure may come off the Fed. But its credibility problems remain. | |
| | Earnings and economic calendar | | - Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended July 31 (-6.4% previously); ADP employment change, July (+75,000 expected, +98,000 previously); S&P global US services PMI, July final reading (53.6 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, July final reading (53.6 previously); ISM services index, July (54.3 expected, 54 previously); ISM services prices paid, July (65 expected, 67.7 previously); ISM services new orders, July (55.1 previously); ISM services employment, July (51.2 previously)
- Earnings calendar: Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Western Digital (WDC), Sandisk (SNDK), Walt Disney (DIS), Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), AppLovin (APP), McKesson Corporation (MCK), MercadoLibre (MELI), DoorDash (DASH), Phillips 66 (PSX), Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Honeywell Aerospace (HONA), MetLife (MET), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), eBay (EBAY), Block (XYZ), Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI), Honda Motor Co. (HMC), Expedia Group (EXPE), Nutrien (NTR), Medline (MDLN), Kraft Heinz (KHC)
| - Economic data: Challenger job cuts, year-on-year, July (-4.5% previously); Nonfarm productivity, second quarter preliminary reading, (+0.7% expected, +0.3% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 1 (197,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended July 25 (1.782 million previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, June final reading (+0.3% previously)
- Earnings calendar: ConocoPhillips (COP), Petrobras (PBR), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cloudflare (NET), Datadog (DDOG), Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST), Constellation Energy (CEG), Airbnb (ABNB), Aflac (AFL), Republic Services (RSG), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM), Diageo (DEO), Sun Life Financial (SLF), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Consolidated Edison (ED), Kenvue (KVUE), Fiserv (FISV), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Atlassian (TEAM), Formula One (FWONA), Fox Corporation (FOX), Ralph Lauren (RL), Roku (ROKU), Evergy (EVRG), Warner Music Group (WMG), Unity Software (U), DraftKings (DKNG), Maplebear (CART), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), Dropbox (DBX), Celsius Holdings (CELH), MP Materials (MP)
| - Economic data: Change in nonfarm payrolls, July (+88,000 expected, +57,000 previously); Change in private payrolls, July (+93,000 expected, +49,000 previously); Change in manufacturing payrolls, July (+2,000 expected, +3,000 previously); Average hourly earnings, month-on-month, July (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, July (+3.5% expected, +3.5% previously); Unemployment rate, July (4.2% expected, 4.2% previously); NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, July (+3.67% previously); Consumer credit, June ($12.1 billion expected, -0.18 billion previously)
- Earnings calendar: Vistra Corp. (VST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Oklo (OKLO), Under Armour (UA), Wendy's (WEN)
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