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| Good morning! And happy jobs day Friday. Stocks slipped slightly on Thursday as investors waited for Friday's jobs data and further news from the Middle East, while oil prices — and bond yields — rose again. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) 0.1%, and the Dow (^DJI) 0.9%. The 10-year yield (^TNX) jumped to 4.67%. | - How is AI showing up in jobs data?
- SpaceX investors bought the dip
- Google rules the AI bond market
- Meet Ford’s new EV pickup
| What we're watching Friday: The big jobs numbers expected: 88,000 with a steady 4.2% unemployment rate. But we're also watching the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations and quarterly results from Oklo (OKLO), Vistra Corp. (VST), Under Armour (UA), and Wendy's (WEN). | |
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| | Market snapshot Key market moves from last session | | | Powered by See the bigger picture. | | |
| A growing labor market question: How is AI showing up in jobs data? | Job seekers wait in line for free resume preparation services as they attend a Inspire Together job and resource fair in Los Angeles, California on July 29, 2026 (Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images) | The July jobs report is out at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning, capping off the end of this month's jobs week. ADP's private sector payrolls set the table on Thursday, falling short of expectations and raising the possibility of the labor market starting to cool. Still, it's been a mixed week so far. The JOLTS data showed hiring improved as job openings slid. And that ADP "disappointment" featured higher wages for job switchers, a sign of strength. In all likelihood, this mixed bag and expectation of a "healthy" data release today will be a sign that the labor market is neither overheating nor showing any need for rescue, which would give the Fed cover not just to chase the inflation challenge, but to justify holding or hiking. Unless, of course, there's a surprise, which some traders are bracing for. But just as compelling is looking a little deeper into the data, searching for clues to answer what may be the defining question of this era: How is AI going to change the labor market? Thursday's layoff data from Challenger showed something very interesting: The tech sector is responsible for around a third of 2026's job-cut plans. As you might expect, AI has been cited as a cause in many cases. And it makes sense given the tech industry's proximity to innovation, and how the optics might make the company seem modern in investors' eyes. | |
| SpaceX investors bought the dip | A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying Northrop Grumman's Mission Robotic Vehicle (MRV) and Mission Extension Pods (MEPs) launches from Space Force Station's Launch Complex 40 in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on July 21, 2026. (CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP via Getty Images) | SpaceX didn't do anything wild on Thursday as a huge tranche of locked-up shares were unshackled, a win for the beleaguered stock. But the story of the company's post-IPO free-fall is also one that shows both retail investors' power and belief in a vision-based company whose value is firmly in the future — and decidedly not the present. Take Wednesday morning: As many investors blew raspberries at the stock, individual investors bought $22.7 million worth in the very first hour of the day, according to Vanda Research. The analysts added that SpaceX has not had a single day of net retail selling — indicating that these regular people are all in and not affected by the buffeting winds that have blown the stock up (but mostly down) since its June 12 debut. One thing that's fascinating here is the firm alignment between retail investors and Wall Street, which issued a ton of bullish price targets, even up to $300/share, for largely the same reasons that ordinary investors love the company. | |
| Google rules the AI bond market | Attendees await the arrival of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai at the Google Midlothian Data Center on November 14, 2025 in Midlothian, Texas. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | AI spending has raided many of the hyperscalers' free cash flow, and in Alphabet's case, it's put it into the red. But tapping the receipts isn't enough, so the company has gone back to the bond market for more capital. The fact that this fundraising comes only a couple of weeks after its quarterly results —making investors boo and sell — made for quite the test. Recent bond sales from its peers have gotten tepid interest, but Bloomberg reported that Alphabet did see $115 billion in orders, indicating strong appetite by investors, especially when you consider that Amazon and Meta, which just did a $12.5 billion bond sale for a Texas data center, didn't get much response. A win for Google. | |
| Check out Ford's new EV pickup | A depiction of Ford's UEV platform, with the first product being a pickup truck with an aerodynamic profile. (Ford) | Ford's new "cheap EV" is, of course, a truck. What else? Starting at $28,350, the end product of an effort to simplify manufacturing seems to have solved the "sub $30,000" EV question with which Ford has been grappling. Called the "Fathom," the universal electric vehicle platform (UEV) makes it one of the most affordable EVs on the market. And being Ford, without Tesla's Muskian reputational baggage, is likely to be appealing to the EV-curious. The clear mismatch between automaker plans and actual car buyers has been a sore point for the industry, which has written down billions as many companies pivoted to plug-in hybrids. But the low price, along with the fact that it's a truck (this is America, after all), may prove to roll smoother where the proverbial rubber hits the road. We'll see when the preorders start early next year, and then when cars actually ship a few months later. | |
| | Earnings and economic calendar | | - Economic data: Change in nonfarm payrolls, July (+88,000 expected, +57,000 previously); Change in private payrolls, July (+93,000 expected, +49,000 previously); Change in manufacturing payrolls, July (+2,000 expected, +3,000 previously); Average hourly earnings, month-on-month, July (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, July (+3.5% expected, +3.5% previously); Unemployment rate, July (4.2% expected, 4.2% previously); NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, July (+3.67% previously); Consumer credit, June ($12.1 billion expected, -0.18 billion previously)
- Earnings calendar: Vistra Corp. (VST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Oklo (OKLO), Under Armour (UA), Wendy's (WEN)
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