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| Good morning! Despite everyone having Wednesday's Nvidia earnings circled on the calendar, the week's been anything but boring. An escalating trade war with Canada and splashy Iran strategy from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kept the stock market in action on Monday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) 0.8%, as the Dow (^DJI) went the other way, gaining 0.3%. | - Oil isn't just the key for bonds — it's a key risk for stocks
- The Cybercab unveiling is a crucial test of Tesla’s vision
- The debasement trade is back
- Taco Bell is going to be recovering for longer than its customers
| What we're watching Tuesday: We'll get a recreation retail check from DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) and a SaaSpocalypse check from Intuit (INTU), see what Zoom Communications (ZM) is up to, and get economic data in the form of the Conference Board's consumer confidence and ADP weekly jobs data. | |
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| | Market snapshot Key market moves from last session | | | Powered by See the bigger picture. | | |
| Oil isn't just the key for bonds — it's a key risk for stocks | The company behind Facebook and Instagram will defend itself in court starting Tuesday in a case brought by more than two dozen states. | Oil prices fell slightly and then seemed to stabilize after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a new (but vague) strategy to isolate Iran, aimed at putting pressure on countries like China that buy Iranian oil. After a recent run of oil price gains, the relief was welcome. And even though stocks closed in the red on Monday following the news, the role of oil prices as a harbinger is set to expand from a geopolitical barometer to something bigger for markets. Oil prices are already a fat thumb on the scale of the bond market, which faces a historic crunch amid soaring yields and questions about America's debt, stubborn inflation, and an AI build-out. But while oil prices and bond yields haven't done much to stubbornly bullish stocks lately, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients that stocks could soon find themselves pulled into the fray. The stock market's resilience is notable, as it hasn't blinked while yields soar far beyond the 4.5% warning line. But eventually, the proverbial chickens will come home to roost if borrowing costs stay this high — especially if oil prices advance further. Wilson noted that another jump could easily leave the dovish Fed with no other choice but to hike, calling the stock market's bluff. | |
| The Cybercab unveiling is a crucial test of Tesla’s vision | Flemish Minister for Mobility and Public Works Annick De Ridder is pictured during a test drive of Tesla's first Full Self-Driving (FSD) models to have been type-approved in Antwerp, June 15, 2026. (ONAS ROOSENS / BELGA MAG / Belga / AFP via Getty Images) | The linchpin to Tesla’s trillion-dollar valuation and its ambition to become a next-generation AI company finally has a debut date. Tesla will unveil the production Cybercab at a launch event in Austin, Texas, on Sept. 3, in what will be the most significant test yet of the company’s robotaxi endeavors. CEO Elon Musk’s ability to deliver on the two-seat, purpose-built vehicle is crucial to Tesla’s narrative. That’s because the Cybercab, with no steering wheel or pedals, is the company’s first vehicle designed purely for autonomy. It will run on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as part of the robotaxi fleet, meant to elevate the company beyond the role of car manufacturer. But the tension between the promise of disrupting transportation in the AI era and actually doing so is what animates the intense debate around Tesla and its stock. Musk is no stranger to doubt and skepticism aimed his way. Despite a history of offering lofty pledges and ambitious timelines that sometimes fail, however, Musk maintains a loyal following. Tesla’s stock trades at a premium on the belief that the Cybercab will become the foundation of an autonomous ride-hailing network, in addition to selling FSD subscriptions to private owners at software-like margins. Next week, an impressive-looking Cybercab would fortify that thesis. A shaky debut wouldn't prove the Tesla doubters right. But it would make it a lot easier to be one. | |
| The debasement trade is back | An employee holds gold bars, as silver and gold bars of various values are stored in a safe deposit room in Munich, Germany, January 28, 2026. (REUTERS/ Angelika Warmuth) | Gold is up, bitcoin posted a monster weekly gain, and the dollar is weakening. Investors are welcoming back the debasement trade. Facing a daunting rise in borrowing costs, the Treasury Department took the extraordinary step last week of unexpectedly expanding its bond buyback program. While the move temporarily brought down yields, the more lasting impact was a signal that the federal government would intervene to ease borrowing costs. (Or try to, anyway.) That’s fueled a comeback in the debasement trade — the purchase of assets perceived to hold value in the face of weakening purchasing power. Heavy government spending, persistent inflation, and geopolitical instability drove the debasement theme last year. But it’s since been revitalized as investors question the Treasury’s strategy and pour into other safe havens and digital assets. At issue is the credibility of US government policy and faith in the US dollar. Many Wall Street analysts expressed skepticism of the Treasury’s moves because even an amplified bond-buying program wouldn’t address the root causes of high yields, nor does it have the muscle of the Fed. And while the White House has said it would unveil initiatives to address the high costs of borrowing, fiscal discipline isn’t this administration’s or Washington’s strong suit. In the meantime, investors are finding ways to make money from a weakening currency. | |
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| Taco Bell is going to be recovering for longer than its customers | A woman eats and works on her laptop inside the Taco Bell on University Avenue on July 15, 2026 in Riverside, CA. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images) | There's a lot that can ail a company, and for a restaurant chain, actual illness is one of the worst. Taco Bell, like Chipotle before it, has learned this lesson hard as the diarrhea-causing cyclosporiasis roared through the country, social media, and into Taco Bell's financials. The company's same-store sales appear to be in recovery, but the big question for investors is just how long people will need to forget about the incident and go back to living más at the Bell. Analysts like Evercore ISI's David Palmer are seeing this as "a temporary air pocket rather than lasting brand damage," but the fact that "lasting brand damage" is even in the conversation shows just how bad this is for restaurants. Interestingly, the company's playbook, Palmer notes, is going for "value" rather than "broadening the consumer" by going after some sort of reputational change. Already, the $1 digital drops the company has experimented with have had a big response. We can only wonder at the lessons here for other restaurants facing reputational safety crises. Perhaps Taco Bell has its own unique reputation, like its Baja Blast. Or perhaps inflation is so bad that value trumps everything now, even the risk of a digestive roller coaster. | |
| | Earnings and economic calendar | | - Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended Aug. 8; Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, August (7.4 previously); FHFA house price index, month-on-month, June (+0.3% previously); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, August (5 previously); Richmond Fed business conditions, August (-5 previously); New home sales, month-on-month, July (+1.6% previously); Conference Board consumer confidence, August (90.8 previously); Conference Board present situation, August (114.9 previously); Conference Board expectations, August (74.7 previously)
- Earnings calendar: Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), Intuit (INTU), Zoom Communications (ZM), DICK's Sporting Goods (DKS)
| - Economic data: PCE price index, month-on-month, July (-0.1% previously); PCE price index, year-on-year, July (+3.7% previously); Core PCE price index, month-on-month, July (+0.1% previously); Core PCE price index, year-on-year, July (+3.3% previously); Personal income, July (+0.2% previously); Personal spending, July (+0.3% previously); Real personal spending, July (+0.4% previously); Durable goods orders, July preliminary reading (+0.5% previously); GDP annualized, quarter-on-quarter, second quarter (+1.5% previously); Personal consumption, second quarter (+3.2% previously); GDP price index, second quarter (+6.2% previously); Core PCE price index, quarter-on-quarter, second quarter (+3.4% previously)
- Earnings calendar: Nvidia (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Synopsys (SNPS), Agilent Technologies (A), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Okta (OKTA), Nutanix (NTNX), Five Below (FIVE), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Bath & Body Works (BBWI)
| - Economic data: Advance goods trade balance, July (-$101.4 billion previously); Retail inventories, month-on-month, July (0% previously); Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, July preliminary reading (+0.2% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 22 (206,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended Aug. 15 (1.799 million previously); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, August (9 previously)
- Earnings calendar: Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO), TD Bank (TD.TO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Prudential (PRU), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Rubrik (RBRK)
| - Economic data: MNI Chicago PMI, August (57.6 previously); U. Mich. sentiment, August final reading (51 previously); U. Mich. current conditions, August final reading (51.8 previously); U. Mich. expectations, August final reading (50.6 previously); U. Mich. 1-year inflation, August final reading (4.3% previously); U. Mich. 5-10 year inflation, August final reading (3.3% previously); Kansas City Fed services activity, August (14 previously)
- Earnings calendar: No notable earnings.
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